Home » Currency Note » Midweek Update » Do or die and the balance of probabilities

The pound continues to trade at a rate some way off its early 2019 highs but some way above its 2016, 2017 and 2018 lows too. A poll in today’s Times found that 36% of the population believe that the claims that a no-deal Brexit would cause severe damage to the economy have been exaggerated or invented.

It’s always worth flipping these kind of stats on their head. Do that and we find 64% of Britons believing that the risks have NOT been exaggerated or invented. Even, presumably, the one that the pound could fall by another 20% if there’s no deal. Is our belief in such a negative outcome surprising when you consider that the economy didn’t collapse after the referendum result as it was predicted it would do? I’ll leave you to judge on that. In the meantime the clear favourite to win the leadership race said he would deliver Brexit on 31 October, deal or no deal, “do or die”.

That 36:64 split in opinion was repeated when the Spain Property Guide asked its readers if they would use a currency specialist or their bank for the transfer when they bought a home in Spain. I’m glad to say that a clear majority saw the benefit of using us rather than their local bank.

So, if you can believe the “wisdom of crowds”, the basic story is that Johnson will probably become Prime Minister, he will probably deliver some sort of no deal or hard Brexit, which will probably lead to a severe drop in the pound, and to avoid that becoming a problem you’re best to use Smart rather than your local bank.

What I can say definitely is that if you use a Forward Contract to lock in your rate now, all the probabilities disappear and you are left with clarity on what you can afford to buy abroad until the summer of 2020, by which time hopefully this will all be a distant memory!

Your trader is waiting for your call on 020 7898 0541.

Find out how we can help you

Let us know a little more about your upcoming currency exchange needs. We aim to take the uncertainty away by providing guidance on which services suit your individual requirements. You can then rest, assured your money is not at the mercy of the currency markets.

Secure and efficient transfers

Secure, quick and efficient transfers. Authorised by the FCA.

Protect against risk

Avoid losing money and protect against currencies moving against you.

Dedicated trader

Dedicated currency trader working with you to get the best value for your money.

Refer a friend or business

Recommend our services to your friends, family or colleagues and earn great rewards.