Last week saw the dollar continue to slide against other currencies. Compared to this time last month, you now get an extra two cents for every pound you change into USD. Meanwhile, the euro keeps going from strength to strength.
Though, this week will be particularly telling for the pound…
There are three important pieces of data coming for the UK: unemployment figures, house prices and monthly GDP numbers.
On Tuesday, new unemployment figures will reveal if the April budget, which saw employer national insurance contributions increase, has led to layoffs. May saw an increase in unemployment for the first time in four months, and June’s data may continue the trend.
Then, on Thursday, RICS house price data will show what impact the increase on stamp duty has had on the markets. New GDP data will also reveal if last month’s above-expected growth was a one-off bump or a trend.
With that in mind, we would strongly recommend you protect your budget from risk by locking in today’s rate. One call to your personal account manager on 020 8003 4915 could make all the difference, so don’t leave your future in the hands of fate.
Over in the US, none of last week’s data was a ringing endorsement of President Donald Trump’s economy. In the last month, fewer people were hired and both the manufacturing and services industries reported fewer orders. The clock is running down on the tariff pauses Trump announced last month and the only trade agreement the US government has signed is with the UK.
All that uncertainty is reflected in the value of the dollar, which has broadly fallen against the pound and euro since Trump took office. It’s down nearly 2% against the pound in the last month alone, meaning you get two cents more for every pound than you did at the start of May.
Meanwhile, Europe had a comparatively stable week. After bringing inflation down below its 2% target, the European Central Bank cut interest rates. There is little new data due this week that could upset the markets. However, it does mean the euro is somewhat at the mercy or movements in the US, where Trump is mulling further changes to his international tariff policies.
