The single currency has recovered some ground following the withdrawal of US tariff threats, as the Eurozone would have been the primary casualty of a trade war. However, gains are being capped by the European Central Bank’s cautious tone today, with policymakers signalling that a “dovish pivot” could be coming if growth fails to pick up. While the acute political risk has faded, the economic divergence between the US and the Eurozone remains a headwind.

GBP/EUR: the past year

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