The dollar has lost ground for a second straight session, and the broader trend isn’t hard to explain. US growth slowed sharply to 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025, consumer confidence remains below recession-warning levels for the thirteenth consecutive month, and the tariff picture is, to put it kindly, unsettled. The new 15% import surcharge expires after 150 days unless Congress extends it – hardly the sort of clarity businesses crave. This afternoon’s durable goods data should give a better sense of investment appetite. Looking ahead, next Friday’s jobs report is the last big release before the Federal Reserve meets on 17–18 March. Rate traders have pushed expectations for the next Fed cut all the way out to September.
EUR/USD: the past year
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