The dollar still tends to benefit when the world feels uncertain, even when the US is a central character in the story. If markets start thinking the conflict could broaden, you can get a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and worries about inflation being pushed higher again via fuel and shipping costs. Tomorrow’s US flash PMI is one of the key diary items, but the bigger swing factor is still headlines out of the Gulf. If the Hormuz situation looks like it’s stabilising, risk appetite usually improves quickly. If it doesn’t, the defensive mood can linger.
USD: Safe-haven, with a question mark
Christopher Nye
on March 23rd, 2026 
