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A similar story for the euro, with European business facing the same problems as the UK, being a heavy oil user without its own supply. The risk is that, like the last oil shock when Russia invaded Ukraine, it sends inflation shooting up. As it happens we have final results for inflation coming through presently and next week. So far today we’ve had German inflation ramping up to 2.8% from 2% last month, fuelling the likelihood of interest rate rises this year. Other than that it’s a fallow period for data.

GBP/EUR past year

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