The euro has barely flickered this week as markets wait for direction. The decision itself is all but certain to be a hold, but this morning’s flash inflation reading is expected to show eurozone consumer prices accelerating past 3% – and if Lagarde signals at this afternoon’s press conference that a June rate rise is genuinely on the table, the euro has something to work with. Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said last month the ECB was caught “between its baseline and adverse scenario.” At $126 oil, most would say the adverse scenario is arriving in real time.
GBP/EUR past year
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