The opinion polls are continuing to give the currency markets something to think about as we head into the final full week before the general election. Even so, on current projections, everything we have heard over the past few years of political punditry appears to be completely wrong. Such as, that you can’t win an election if you depart the centre ground. Or that politics is fracturing and it’s all about the smaller parties…
Currency forecasters are no more reliable. The general opinion is that the pound will shoot up if the Conservatives win a commanding majority, but there is absolutely no guarantee of that. If your plans for 2020 are relying on today’s exchange rate, which is still far above the average for the past three years, why not lock it in with a forward contract?
I occasionally worry that if Brexit is indeed settled within the next two months that I’ll have nothing to write about! However, there are other matters on the horizon for 2020 that will affect the pound. There is the departure of Mark Carney as governor of the Bank of England for a start, scheduled for 31 January. Before that we may see, again based on current polling, what a Boris Johnson government with a workable majority means. Will he govern as he did as Major of London, essentially from the centre, ditching the more right-wing elements of the party? Or are we about to see what a government unfettered and run by people like Jacob Rees-Mogg really means. The evidence from today’s papers that they plan a US style visa-system even to the EU suggests we have an interesting time ahead – whoever wins. What that will mean for the pound we wait and see.
Or have the opinion polls got it wrong again – just like in, let me think, 2015, 2016 and 2017…
Either way, we expect to be extremely busy over the coming year. Why not talk to your trader about locking in today’s rate? Call your trader on 020 7898 0541.
