There have been mixed signals regarding both the Covid crisis in the UK and the economy in recent days. One graph – British cases of Covid-19 and fatalities from it – appears to have stopped falling and levelled out at a rate far above our European neighbours. On the other hand, the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said yesterday that the evidence suggests the economy will bounce back rapidly in a V-shaped recovery.
The safest bet is to assume that no-one knows anything. We don’t know what will happen in the next phase of the coronavirus epidemic – or the impact of that on travel, tourism and the opening up of the economy – and we don’t know what will happen to the economy even if there is no second wave and we’re back to near-normal by September.
So what do we know? We do know that Britain will have departed the transition period in exactly six month’s time.
We know that business, freedom of movement and many other facets of how we deal with Europe will probably be disrupted. That includes such matters as health, residency, visas and even the paperwork when you hire a car at the airport.
But we also know that Europe needs the UK to be a functioning business and travel partner. What else can explain countries like Spain and Italy, each with roughly 150-300 new Covid cases per day, allowing flights from the UK with between 600 and 1,000 new cases each day?
So I would urge anyone with business dealings in continental Europe, planning to buy a property there or move there to be bold, confident and, above all, proactive!
You have a few months to make that move and maintain all our current EU rights. Hearing from clients, there is a steady flow of people already doing that and we expect it to rise rapidly in the next three months. You can do it in six months too.
On the currency front, yesterday’s small rise has all the hallmarks of a dead cat bounce and the general feeling is that sterling is due for more weakening. You can lock in yesterday’s bounce with a forward contract.
But of course, no-one really knows anything.
Do call your trader on 020 8108 5337 to talk through your options.
