Midweek Update


USD: Rattled by Japan rumours

Speculation that the US and Japan had teamed up to support the (until recently) struggling Japanese yen knocked the US dollar down again on Monday. The dollar index – which tracks its performance against a basket of rival currencies – fell to a four-month low....

EUR: Growth data the highlight

In an otherwise quiet week, Friday’s preliminary gross domestic product figures for the final months of 2025 could be a major catalyst for the euro. Experts are predicting a particularly strong performance from Germany, even if the bloc’s headline growth figure might...

GBP: Quiet start despite political risk

Sir Keir Starmer’s high-wire decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster had no immediate impact on the pound or borrowing costs on Monday. That will come as a relief to weary investors, yet it may only delay the disruption until May’s local government...

Sterling hits strongest since July over US dollar

The US dollar sank to its lowest ebb in four months yesterday and its weakest since July against the pound. After the Greenland saga brought about its worst week since May, the US dollar continued to struggle even as other traditional safe-haven assets – including...

Sterling soars as threats evaporate

The pound went into the weekend with a bit more spring in its step as a run of UK data nudged interest rate cuts further into 2026. Two potential threats to sterling’s stability have also been neutralised for now after President Trump TACOed* as usual on Greenland...

Pound stronger as twin threats disappear

The pound went into the weekend with a bit more spring in its step, after a run of UK data nudged the “soft landing” story back into the foreground. Two potential threats to sterling’s stability have also been neutralised for now: Greenland and Andy Burnham. The...

GBP: Activity gauges surprise on the upside

The pound finished last week firmer, helped by signs from PMI that the UK economy may have carried more momentum into the new year than markets had assumed. GBP/EUR swung 1% over the week but ended up where it started, while GBP/USD gained 2% and held it. Coming up...

EUR: Greenland ‘deal’ boosts euro

The euro gained more than 3% against the dollar last week, surging on Friday evening as the Trump/Greenland mood turned more doveish. The latest eurozone PMI snapshot continued to signal expansion, with services doing most of the heavy lifting while manufacturing only...

USD: Fed week looms

The dollar declined in a series of steps over last week, overall ending up 2.3% down on the euro, 2% down on sterling and considerably worse against the commodity backed currencies such as AUD and NOK. This week is all about the US Federal Reserve’s decision on...

USD: Dollar steadies on resilient jobs and GDP

After an initial wobble caused by the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the US dollar is being supported by yet another solid labour market report, which reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to keep rates restrictive for longer. That will not please...