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Partner Currency Note


Oil surge sharpens the rate debate

The pound is holding its nerve this morning ahead of a day that has been circled in red on currency traders’ calendars for weeks. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announce their rate decisions today – the BoE at noon, the ECB early...

GBP: The vote split is today’s real story

Sterling has come into this morning’s decision in reasonable shape – broadly firm against the euro and well above where it started April against the dollar. The hold itself is a foregone conclusion; what moves markets is whether Huw Pill votes for a hike and...

EUR: Lagarde’s words matter more than the decision

The euro has barely flickered this week as markets wait for direction. The decision itself is all but certain to be a hold, but this morning’s flash inflation reading is expected to show eurozone consumer prices accelerating past 3% – and if Lagarde signals at...

USD: Hawks win the argument, Powell takes his bow

The dollar firmed overnight as markets absorbed the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve’s split decision. Three committee members pushed to drop any language pointing toward future rate cuts – a meaningful signal that inflation is making the doves uncomfortable....

Sterling remains strong as Starmer evades risky enquiry

It was a positive day for the pound yesterday which dodged a couple of potential risks. While it weakened initially against the euro, sterling then thought better of it, remaining at the upper reaches of where it has been becalmed since last July. This remarkable...

USD: No drama expected for Powell’s last Fed decision

While the King received a warm welcome in the US, should he have time for any shopping Charles will find the currency with his picture on it stretching close to 2% further than last month. Today could be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as head of the USA Federal Reserve,...

EUR: Euro becalmed ahead of ECB vote

If you appreciated the end-to-end football drama of PSG and Bayern Munich at the heart of Europe last night, imagine recent movements in the euro as the opposite of that. Against the pound and US dollar it’s barely moved this week. That’s despite the ECB facing...

GBP: Positive week for sterling ahead of BoE vote

Gains for the pound this week have been modest – all less than 1% – but across the board. While few analysts expect a move on interest rates tomorrow, the voting pattern of the MPC and comments from BoE boss Andrew Bailey could be influential. After a run of...

Sterling remains strong despite rate hold expectations

The pound weakened yesterday against the euro but then thought better of it, as an interest rate hold from the Bank of England (BoE) looks increasing likely to the markets when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) speaks tomorrow. However, recent votes suggest it is...

USD: Fed just the start

The Federal Reserve’s decision is just part of the significant events that could impact the US dollar this week. The war in the Middle East tops that list, but the Core PCE price index, GDP and durable goods orders mean the dollar could be pulled this way and that...