Start of the week update


Thoughts turn to long-term risks to sterling

Thoughts turn to long-term risks to sterling

Some of the froth came off the pound’s recent gains yesterday, but it’s still clinging on to a position close to a six-week high against the euro. The background to exchange rate movements right now is interest rates and some volatility can be expected. The US Federal...

USD: Markets wait for Fed decision

Positive data on job openings yesterday failed to impress the currency markets – or at least, not as much as they were concerned at the interest rate cut expected today. We’ll get that decision at 7pm UK time.

EUR: Mixed picture for euro

There was no coherent picture for the single currency yesterday, as it headed in wildly different directions – a 0.75% gain on the yen and smaller gains on GBP, USD and NOK but in the red against AUD and others. Christine Lagarde will be talking shortly, but will...

GBP: Sterling drops off the pace

The froth came off the pound’s recent gains yesterday, with roughly 0.5% losses against the Aussie dollar but rather less against the US dollar and euro. The data picture picks up over the week, all leading up to the BoE’s decision a week tomorrow, so expect...

Fed to move first on rates, but will BoE follow?

We’re in interest rate season and the US Federal Reserve goes today, with a 25-basis point cut widely expected. Any deviation from that is likely to hit the dollar one way or another. It follows a stonking US employment report yesterday, with 430,000 new jobs added....

USD: Risk-off tone helps dollar

Monday began on a more cautious note than last time out, as is typically the case before a bid Federal Reserve decision. Slowness out the gate was a welcome help for the US dollar and allowed it to record marginal daily advances over both the pound and the euro....

EUR: German exports ramp up

Germany’s trade surplus widened to €16.9 billion in October. That was caused by a surprise fall in imports coinciding with a surprise uptick in exports. October’s report marked the largest trade surplus since May. GBP/EUR: the past year 1 Min 5 Min 1 Hr 1 Day 1...

GBP: Getting in early

The pound was pressured by some early risk management trades on Monday. With more than a week to go until the Bank’s last policy meeting of 2025, some traders are positioning themselves for a quarter-point cut that might see sterling end the year on the back foot....

Leaders gather in bid to prevent Ukraine surrender

Currency markets were in thrall to politics again on Monday, as a low-key start on the economic data front meant the focus fell squarely on Ukraine. Kyiv’s future looks increasingly uncertain amid pressure from the United States to reach a peace deal with Russia,...

Will sterling’s fightback make it to Christmas?

The pound had a strong week last time out, riding a wave of post-Budget relief to hit a five-week high against the euro. All told, the pound to euro rate improved by about half a cent – the equivalent to a couple thousand pounds on a €250,000 purchase. There’s only...