Sterling reached its highest level for three months yesterday against the euro, before falling back sharply to where it started the day.
If that sentence gives you a sense of déjà vu it’s because that’s been the pattern for the past eight weeks now, trying to get over the €1.17 level but then falling back.
It all makes a fascinating graph for currency geeks but is frustrating for those just looking for that final GBP/EUR break out before making their currency exchange or fixing their rate.
It might never happen. We’ve been seeing a lot of rainbows in the south of England this summer and waiting for the pound to take off looks like chasing them.
One can always find a website or big-bank analyst claiming that the pound is about to strengthen, but the empirical evidence is that they don’t know any more than you or I. (Which reminds me, our new Quarterly Forecast is nearly ready – do look out for it).
What we do know is that the pound is currently around its strongest level for five years, powered upwards by the UK being ahead of the game on vaccines compared to the Eurozone, and freed for the moment from post-Brexit anxiety.
All of that could change very quickly.
Therefore, my suggestion for anyone waiting to make a significant trade, would be to lock in this excellent rate now. You can do that by calling your trader on 020 8003 4915.
