The euro is down against the pound this morning as the eurozone awaits the release of a raft of confidence figures, including business and consumer confidence and economic, industrial and services sentiment. All but consumer confidence are expected to come in with a decline from previous releases.
If that is the case, and especially if they come in even below expectations, the probability of a rate cut in September will seem higher.
In the meantime, not helping the euro, German consumer confidence, just released, has shown a fall for the third month in a row. In France, GDP figures came in slightly lower than expected, and household consumption has fallen into negative figures, rather than holding above zero as thought. With the French economy very dependent to domestic demand, it’s not a particularly positive sign.
Tomorrow, we will see German retail sales, which are expected to show a fall year-on-year, but a growth on the previous month. Most importantly, however, we will see flash GDP figures for the eurozone, which are expected to fall. We’ll also see individual GDP figures for Spain and Italy.
