We can’t honestly say it’s a surprise. The pivot to serious no-deal planning was on the cards as soon as Boris Johnson put the Cummings-Gove duo in charge of planning Brexit. And when the markets woke up to the fact that it was an active possibility – indeed the “working assumption”, according to Michael Gove – the pound was always going to fall.
Perhaps the wonder is that it took so long and the pound hasn’t fallen further. Although a 7-8% weakening in sterling over the course of three months is unnerving (that’s one word for it anyway) for anyone with a transaction in the offing, business leaders warned of parity against the dollar. And we’re a long way from that. In fact the pound is only roughly back to where it was against the euro in the past two summers, in those days when the working assumption was still that the worst outcome would be a fair deal followed by a nice relaxed two-year transition period.
Could it be that Boris Johnson’s energy and optimism, combined with the appointment of Dominic Cummings – portrayed by Benedict Cumberbatch on TV in the UK as some kind of genius – has persuaded some that we have the team to take on the EU? Or has no deal quietly been priced into the markets’ calculations for some time and they are beginning to plan for life beyond 31 October? Or is there a belief that the mechanism for getting no-deal through parliament is too problematic and politics too confusing to rule out the anti-Brexit Lib Dems and Scottish nationalists scuppering Brexit in a general election?
These are fascinating times.
If you’re reading this on a beach somewhere, or in a splendid little French pavement cafe, we’re suitably envious! But if not, perhaps you have a trip overseas to view property lined up for the autumn? The weakening of sterling will be disappointing, but needn’t be critical. To prevent any further damage to your buying budget, however, do call your trader on 020 7898 0541 to discuss locking in your rate with a forward contract.
If you’re planning to buy later in the year or early 2020, we will be at two Your Overseas Home shows in the north and south of the UK this autumn.
