Sterling is under pressure from two directions at once. At home, the new tax year has arrived with a raft of cost increases for businesses – from higher national insurance to the loss of rates relief – and UK factory costs are rising at their steepest rate since late 2022. Abroad, the return of war anxiety after Trump’s speech is pushing the dollar higher and keeping the pound on the back foot. The next big test for the pound is the March inflation reading on 22 April, which will show just how much the energy shock is feeding into everyday prices.
GBP/USD: the past year
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