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The pound enters today’s data in reasonable shape. Wednesday’s inflation figures kept the case for a Bank of England rate hike alive and gilt yields have been moving higher in response. A firm PMI print would reinforce that story. The risk is political: the Mandelson vetting scandal has grown into a Cabinet-level row, and with local elections less than two weeks away any further trouble for the prime minister could begin to weigh on sterling.

GBP/USD: the past year

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