The pound drifted lower into the end of last week, shaped by UK retail sales figures showing a 0.4% fall in February after a strong January, with the Office for National Statistics noting that some spending may have been pulled forward into January to take advantage of discounting. The pound is caught between two forces: markets have shifted away from pricing near-term rate cuts and are increasingly leaning toward a prolonged hold — or even tighter policy — as energy-driven inflation risks build, which has provided some support via higher gilt yields. The key domestic release this week is Tuesday’s quarterly national accounts from the ONS, which will include revisions to gross domestic product (GDP) data stretching back to early 2024 — a potential prompt for reassessment of the UK’s underlying growth picture.
GBP: Data dents demand story
Charles Purdy
on March 29th, 2026 
