Sterling has come into this morning’s decision in reasonable shape – broadly firm against the euro and well above where it started April against the dollar. The hold itself is a foregone conclusion; what moves markets is whether Huw Pill votes for a hike and what Andrew Bailey says about the path ahead. If the language on second-round inflation risks sharpens – with oil at a four-year high and services prices still running hot – the pound has room to extend recent gains. If Bailey leans hard against the hike pricing already built into the market, expect the opposite.
GBP/USD past year
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