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Consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom ticked up to 2.9% in July, piling more pressure on businesses and consumers beginning to feel the squeeze from the protracted energy crisis.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the impact of higher oil and gas prices drove the increase from June’s 2.6% read. The price of alcohol, tobacco, furniture and clothing was also up month-on-month, although there was a surprising slowdown in food cost inflation. Sterling was seen slightly lower against the euro immediately after this morning’s news.

Despite what some self-described experts may claim, nobody can say for certain if the pound will move up or down in the months to come. So, if you’re looking to make a major purchase before the end of the year, whether that’s buying property overseas, transferring a pension or making a large investment, locking in a your rate for up to twelve months from now can often be a sensible idea. Give our team a call on 020 8003 4915 and we’ll be happy to help.

Tuesday was a broadly settled day for major currency pairs. Despite some fresh data to consider, the pound ranged by a mere fraction of a cent against both the US dollar and the euro. Even the Japanese yen, which recently came under such pressure the American government had to intervene to stop the crisis spreading, moved by less than 0.2% on average.

Things weren’t so settled in the Middle East, where yet more political grandstanding sent oil prices to their highest this month. Iran launched more military strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump sent a post to his Truth Social network labelling the region the new ‘US territory’.

All this led to a jumpy mood in wider markets. Concerns that the conflict with Iran would drag on for months have sent government borrowing costs higher in recent days. That trend continued on Tuesday, with UK and US bond yields (i.e. the price a government must pay to borrow) coming under particular pressure.

GBP: Signs of jobs improvement

Yesterday's employment report wasn't all sunshine, but it did at least signal a slightly less gloomy labour market. The total number of people in work is trending upwards, a positive counterweight to resurgent inflation and one that just might support the pound, should it be sustained.

GBP/USD: the past year

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EUR: Confidence builds

Germany's influential ZEW economic sentiment index climbed to its highest level since February this month. Bolstered by strengthening confidence around future conditions, consumers brushed off recent angst to provide the euro with a positive tailwind heading into September.  

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USD: Mixed ahead of minutes

The US dollar entered a holding pattern on Tuesday ahead of the release of the latest FOMC minutes tonight. Kevin Warsh's rather disastrous first briefing as chair of the Federal Reserve had a negative impact on the dollar, which has proved sensitive to both economic news and pressure in the bond market.

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