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USD: Maverick White House

The US dollar has benefited from safe haven flows during the oil crisis, but is getting harder by the day for investors to bank on America. Donald Trump’s threat to enact civilisational wipeout on Iran was another reminder of this new, unpredictable era of American...


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EUR: Adverse outcome risk

A member of the European Central Bank’s governing council warned that the likelihood of an adverse outcome from the Middle East crisis may have increased. Dimitar Radev said the cost of inaction would increase once the effects fed through into economic output. Tuesday...


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GBP: Glum mood

S&P Global’s UK services study for March found activity expanded at the slowest rate in eleven months. Rising fuel costs meanwhile sent input price inflation to its highest since April 2025, while business optimism fell to a nine-month low. GBP/USD: the past year...


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USD: Strong jobs and safe-haven demand

The dollar is the dominant currency this morning. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected jobs data has reinforced expectations that US interest rates will stay higher for longer, and safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict is adding to dollar strength. This...


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EUR: Rate rise talk grows louder

The euro is holding its ground against the pound but losing it against the dollar. The shift in tone from the European Central Bank has been notable – senior officials are now saying the discussion at April’s meeting is between raising rates or keeping them the...


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