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USD: The dollar waits for proof

The dollar is being pulled in two directions. On one side, a more hawkish-leaning narrative around Fed leadership has been supportive. On the other, the market still wants cold, hard data before it commits either way. Wednesday brings the rescheduled January jobs...


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EUR: Steady ECB, steady euro

The euro has been steadier than sterling, helped by an ECB that looks comfortable holding rates where they are. The key detail is inflation: January’s drop below target strengthens the argument that policy can stay on a long leash, as long as growth doesn’t roll...


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GBP: Politics is in the price again

Sterling didn’t just drift lower this week. It dropped a gear. The BoE’s hold was one thing, but the market is suddenly less willing to assume calm politics and clean decision-making in Westminster. After all the political froth it may be a relief to have data running...


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Uncertainty bursts sterling’s bubble

Uncertainty bursts sterling’s bubble

It was all about the central banks yesterday, even though they sat on their hands. The currency markets were quick to move nonetheless. Sterling took the harder knock. Since its surge upwards on Wednesday lunchtime it’s slipped by roughly 1.5% against both the euro...


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USD: Warsh effect reverberates

The dollar has held its post-nomination gains as investors assess what Kevin Warsh might mean for monetary policy. Some see a safe pair of hands who will preserve the Fed’s independence; others warn his hawkish past could slow the pace of rate cuts. With Jerome...


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