Sterling has hit midweek generally unmoved, even after potentially market-moving data on jobs and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this week.
The news on the UK economy was good this morning, with GDP growing in January in a way that suggests that the recession has been short and shallow and is already ended. Good news for the pound, which has remained at a level 3.5% above this time last year against the euro and 6% up on the US dollar.
However, this is just a preliminary estimate for GDP, and also it depends how you count. GDP per head in the UK is still below pre-Covid levels. Even so, if we have avoided a so-called hard landing for the economy despite the huge rise in interest rates to control inflation, it is certainly what the pundits are calling an ‘immaculate disinflation’.
So, the next big event now becomes the inflation rate, which will be announced next Wednesday. Whether it will have restarted its downward trend after stalling last month may well decide your exchange rate for the spring.
If you have committed to a move abroad, or selling an investment abroad, or buying a property, and the prospect of your exchange rate being essentially random worries you, it would worry me too!
That’s why I would urge anyone committed to a large transaction to call their account manager on 020 7898 0541 and discuss fixing their rate for the year ahead.
There is only one thing I ever predict for exchange rates and that is that they will move. The recent stable period will end – and will it end at just the wrong time for you? Why take the risk?
Lastly, a final reminder that the Your Overseas Home Virtual Event – the international property and moving abroad show that Smart Currency sponsors – is this weekend. After you have registered via this link, which takes seconds and is entirely free, you just log on Saturday – it’s all online – and can talk to a wide range of property lawyers, golden- and retirement-visa specialists, estate agents and others, listen to interesting webinars, and make those trusted, reliable connections.
I hope to see you there.
