The pound strengthened sharply yesterday against a US dollar in retreat as a ‘risk on’ mode seemed to take hold of the markets.
It followed confusion over the supposed deal between the US and Iran, as the United States began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks disintegrated over the weekend. This sent the price of oil up by 7% and raised fresh questions around what comes next.
Can a deal be negotiated? Will the price of oil and gas keep rising? And, most importantly, how will this affect your budget between now and the summer?
Those are exactly the kind of questions we’ll be attempting to answer in today’s webinar. Register for today’s event at 16:00 UKT to hear our team discuss the oil crisis, the outlook for the pound and whether the Bank of England might have some interest rate hikes up its sleeve.
For now, currency markets are squarely focused on the narrow shipping lane that has come to define the war. The price of oil climbed by more than 7% across Monday as traders gave a clear indication they didn’t see a quick end to the war or the supply squeeze. The output of oil-producing Opec nations fell by a record 27% in March alongside the crisis. That was despite nations including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait desperately sending oils in pipelines to alternative ports.
Back home, the latest data indicates the employment market remains rickety. Demand for staff fell at the slowest pace in months, but that could not mask slow pay growth and a finely balanced outlook for 2026.
However, overnight the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that UK retail sales increased 3.1% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in March 2026, far above market expectations for a 0.9% rise. This was mainly attributed to an early Easter, with food sales rising nearly 7%.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract or call your account manager on 020 7898 0541 to get started.
