The dollar’s tone stayed fragile. The Fed is signalling patience, but the market is struggling with the idea that the economy can stay strong while consumers turn sharply gloomier. That tension tends to show up first in currency moves, because they’re a quick proxy for confidence. There is also the worry over a potential government shutdown. Next week is all about the unemployment numbers once again, with JOLTs job openings and non-farm payrolls.

USD/GBP past year

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