One of the more striking things in markets right now is that the dollar isn’t rallying. Oil is above $100, ships are being seized in a blockaded strait and the war shows no sign of ending, yet the dollar is going sideways. Part of the reason is the uncertainty over who leads the Federal Reserve. The Justice Department’s appeal means the Warsh confirmation vote won’t happen until after Powell’s 15 May departure date, and markets are reluctant to back the dollar with that kind of question mark hanging over it. US jobless claims at 13:30 BST and the afternoon PMI are both worth watching.
EUR/USD: the past year
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