The pound’s incredible buoyancy continues, this morning returning to the highs of late last week with a near 0.5% rise against EUR. Against USD the picture is even better, hitting yet another 2½ year high this morning.

Will it last until you come to buy abroad? Probably not.

It is based almost entirely on hopes that the (so far) successful vaccine roll out will result in a marginally earlier end to the lockdown than other countries, rather than any deeper strength in the UK economy.

But don’t just take my word for it: the downside risk highlighted in our brand new Quarterly Forecast – free to download here – is clear. The financial analysts of most major banks believe that sterling will fall, possibly by several percentage points, by Easter, and stay that way into the summer.

If you would like to lock in today’s rate, do call your trader on 020 8108 5337 to talk about a forward contract. This would mean you are guaranteed today’s rate for the year ahead.

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