The euro has been pulled in two directions: a touch firmer against sterling, but softer against the dollar. That’s a familiar pattern when risk aversion is the dominant theme – the dollar takes the safe-haven oxygen, while Europe’s proximity to energy shocks keeps traders cautious. The near-term focus is energy and any sign of disruption around shipping routes. If the market starts pricing a longer-lasting oil shock, it can quickly turn into a growth worry for Europe and a headache for the European Central Bank’s next steps.
EUR: Euro squeezed between geopolitics and dollar’s pull
Christopher Nye
on March 2nd, 2026 
