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The euro has held its footing, but with politics at its shoulder. The chatter around ECB leadership is a reminder that, even when the data is behaving, confidence can wobble when the institution looks exposed to the political cycle. Against the dollar, it’s been more about what the US does next on trade than anything the ECB can control. If markets sense that tariff policy becomes less predictable (again), the euro tends to be dragged into the crossfire.

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