The Bank of England’s expected March rate cut has been effectively taken off the table by the Iran conflict. Markets now see a hold on 19 March as near-certain, with analysts warning that UK inflation could push towards 3.5% this year if energy prices stay elevated. Friday brings UK monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data for January, with forecasts pointing to a modest pick-up – but any domestic good news risks being drowned out by the oil story.
GBP/USD past year