A 0.1% contraction for the UK economy in October sent the pound lower by roughly half a cent against its key rivals, beginning Monday at a two-week low against both the euro and the US dollar. Part of that was a reaction to economic fragility. The bigger factor was that it virtually guaranteed a change in policy when the Bank of England meets on Thursday, at least according to currency markets.
The only thing standing in the way of another quarter-point cut is fresh inflation data. Even then, it would have to take something truly shocking to force policymakers into playing grinch.
It’s a busy old week for economic data before we head into the traditional festive season lull. There’ll be another insight into how the British economy is faring when manufacturing and services data arrive tomorrow. Retail sales for the black Friday period then follow.
US dollar watchers can rejoice that the long-anticipated glut of data has finally arrived. Tuesday alone features non-farm payrolls, unemployment and retail sales data. Delayed inflation data should arrive on Thursday, assuming it isn’t cancelled again.
For the euro, a low-key last decision of the year from the European Central Bank (ECB) might prove less impactful than the schedule of new economic data. There’s always the chance the ECB might spring a surprise, but German manufacturing and consumer reports are the centre of attention for now.
Russia’s central bank has filed a lawsuit against European financial depository Euroclear. After political manoeuvring, Euroclear froze Russian sovereign assets in order to fund new loans to Ukraine. Russia said it would “unconditionally challenge” the legality of that decision.
And there were warnings that this season’s mega-flu outbreak might overwhelm the National Health Service. Flu admissions reached record levels for this time of year to end last week. Health secretary West Streeting said the virus and potential strikes by junior doctors could cause the system to collapse.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract or call your account manager on 020 7898 0541 to get started.
