Sterling has staged a modest recovery in the past couple of days against the euro, but has only made up half of the losses from last week. Against the US dollar there has been some movement but not enough to make much of a dent in the first few days of February’s 3% drop.
There is not a lot on the horizon that offers promise for sterling. There is no significant data today, but tomorrow is the RICS House Price Balance. This is a measure of chartered surveyors’ expert opinions on whether UK house prices are likely to rise and fall. The market predicts that surveyors will be even more pessimistic than last month’s negative report, and that was the lowest reading since 2008.
On Friday is GDP for the last quarter of 2022, which could well move exchange rates, especially if it says that the UK is officially in recession. According to The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) the UK may avoid actually being in recession, but in any case it will “feel like one” for seven million households.
For anyone looking to buy a property abroad, or transfer money between countries, it might be tempting to see if sterling can recover from last week’s losses and return to the levels it was at for most of 2022. However, today’s rate is broadly on the post-referendum average and there isn’t anything obvious coming to boost it.
It is also tracking close to the prediction from the major banks as averaged out on our Quarterly Forecast, and those banks predict a gradual weakening of sterling through the year.
So to lock in today’s rate, or make a trade today, please call your trader on 020 7898 0541.
To get going with your own plans, why not register for the free, online international property event we sponsor – Your Overseas Home. You’ll get answers to all your international property, currency, visa, tax and other questions there, including some advice on when to retire, if moving abroad, which can have expensive tax implications. It’s on Saturday 25th March and you can register here.
