The United States began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after peace talks disintegrated over the weekend, sending the price of oil up by 7% and raising fresh questions around what comes next.
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Sterling starts the week clinging to the gains it made on the US dollar last week and well above the average of the past year. Against the euro it has barely moved over the past nine months and…
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The dollar is doing what it usually does when the world looks twitchy: it attracts demand. The blockade threat is the kind of event that makes investors reduce risk and move into liquid, defensive positions. Still, it’s not…
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The euro has been relatively steady, helped by the fact that the oil story is global rather than euro-specific. Recent trade data out of Germany has also been a reminder that parts of the eurozone economy can still…
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Sterling drifted lower at the end of last week as the market went back to pricing the Middle East first and everything else second. At home, the economic backdrop hasn’t exactly been cheering anyone up. Recent business surveys…
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Currency markets are heading into Monday wondering what happens when talk turns into action. Washington said it will move to a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after US–Iran talks ended without a deal. Tehran has responded…
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The US dollar has steadied after giving ground during the ceasefire euphoria. This is classic risk sentiment: when investors feel less sure about the news the dollar finds support. The next test is whether the ceasefire holds in…
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A similar story for the euro, with European business facing the same problems as the UK, being a heavy oil user without its own supply. The risk is that, like the last oil shock when Russia invaded Ukraine,…
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