What is striking this week is that the dollar is not rallying the way it usually would during a global risk event. Oil above $105, a blockaded strait and record-low consumer sentiment have so far produced only a…
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Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, just hours after Donald Trump announced his extension of the two-week ceasefire, making the truce look increasingly theoretical. The White House insists the attacks don’t count as…
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The pound enters today’s data in reasonable shape. Wednesday’s inflation figures kept the case for a Bank of England rate hike alive and gilt yields have been moving higher in response. A firm PMI print would reinforce that…
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The German ZEW number was ugly enough yesterday, and today’s PMI data could make things look worse. The eurozone’s services sector is expected to slip below 50 for the first time since mid-2025, putting it back into contraction.…
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One of the more striking things in markets right now is that the dollar isn’t rallying. Oil is above $100, ships are being seized in a blockaded strait and the war shows no sign of ending, yet the…
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Headline UK inflation increased from 3% to 3.3% in March, the clearest evidence yet of the impact the Iran war is having on the British economy. Transport costs (including motor fuels) climbed at their fastest pace in over…
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Kevin Warsh appeared before a key congressional hearing on Tuesday hoping for a speedy approval by the Republican chambers. His proximity to the White House was very much under the spotlight, with many investors worried he may be…
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As expected, the German ZEW economic sentiment index plunged in April, although it actually underperformed even those relatively gloomy projections. Consumers reported their lowest level of confidence since late 2022, which makes for an interesting backdrop to next…
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