by Christopher Nye | Mar 25, 2026
Sterling weakened yesterday as the UK’s flash PMI cooled sharply. A composite PMI of 51.0 isn’t a disaster, but it’s a world away from February’s 53.7, and markets will see this sudden drop as a warning shot. The other sterling issue is energy costs. If they keep...
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by Christopher Nye | Mar 25, 2026
The past 24 hours have seen more worrying signs for the UK economy. The pound has looked like a softly deflating tyre this week against both the US dollar and the euro, with the dollar firmer across the board. The clearest datapoint yesterday was the March purchasing...
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by Jonathan Cook | Mar 24, 2026
President Trump lived up to his nickname yesterday. After threatening to obliterate the Iranian energy system, he instead revealed progress in peace talks. That cost the US dollar some ground it had previously gained in the race to find a safe haven. EUR/USD: the past...
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by Jonathan Cook | Mar 24, 2026
German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was ‘hopeful’ of a deal to end hostilities in the Middle East soon. Most of Europe surely shared that feeling, given the eurozone’s acute exposure to high energy costs. In the here and now, Monday was positive for the euro, but...
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by Jonathan Cook | Mar 24, 2026
Up until about 11am on Monday, some experts had been predicting the Bank of England would have to raise interest rates to almost 5% to contain the impact of the oil shock. That changed in the course of just a few minutes, sending the pound soaring and no doubt causing...
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