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USD: Tariffs likely to increase prices

The standard economic result of protectionist trade policy is an increase in inflation. Despite seeing just how politically potent this was on the campaign trail, Trump doesn’t seem to care, preferring instead to widely threaten tariffs. This is good news in the short...


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EUR: Inflation fades into insignificance

New inflation data would usually have been a significant event on Monday’s calendar. Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) in the eurozone climbed from 2.4% to 2.5% in January, yet the euro still struggled to keep its head above water amid the threat from across the...


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GBP: Tariffs tip Bank scales

Based on the latest data, markets put the likelihood of a quarter-point Bank of England interest rate cut on Thursday at over 90%. What was billed as a close decision now appears a given. Sterling is now at risk from a double shock and GBP/USD could have further to...


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Trade turmoil sends GBP/EUR near 2025 high

The euro endured another manic Monday as markets scrambled to adjust to signs of aggressive US trade policy. Donald Trump’s threat to extend his recently unveiled tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to the eurozone sent European stock markets plunging and the euro...


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Sterling, euro brace after Trump fires trade salvo

Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate decision is the headliner of another big week for the pound. GBP/EUR ended Friday at its highest level in over three weeks but the prospect of another 0.25% cut to interest rates threatens that platform. These matters soon...


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