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GBP: Calm start

Sterling traded in a narrow range against the euro and the US dollar on Monday. Caution was the name of the game for most and the pound is sure to be volatile ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data and the Bank’s last decision of the year on Thursday. GBP/USD: the past...


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Unemployment closes in on post-pandemic peak

The United Kingdom’s unemployment rate increased slightly from 5% to 5.1% in October. While in line with forecasts, that took the headline rate of joblessness to its highest level in over four years and close to the peak it reached in the months following the outbreak...


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Long odds of Bank playing grinch

The pound begins Monday at a two-week low against the euro after weakening by roughly half a cent on Friday. Part of that was a reaction to economic fragility (the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in October), but that wasn’t the full story. The bigger factor was that the...


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USD: Jobs the market mover

The big talking point for the US dollar has been the labour market. Unemployment hit a four-year high in September and is projected to have surged higher still in October. With a busy schedule of data tomorrow afternoon, you can expect the US dollar to move quickly....


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EUR: Intrigue to return in 2026

2025 has been a strong year for the euro. Significant gains over the pound and the euro have been facilitated by economic resilience and a stable monetary policy outlook. Next year might bring a change on that front, although there seems to be more chance of rate...


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