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USD: Strong data adds to the Fed’s dilemma

The dollar eased overnight as markets latched onto the Iran diplomatic signal, but it remains well above where it started the week. The conflict has reinforced its role as the default destination when investors are nervous – and with the situation in the Middle East...


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EUR: Energy shock clouds the ECB’s rate path

The euro has edged higher against the dollar this morning, but it remains under heavier pressure than the pound thanks to the eurozone’s acute dependence on energy imports. The old rule of thumb still holds – when oil surges, Europe pays a disproportionate...


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Diplomacy whispers calm nerves

Markets are still trading the same story, but the mood shifted overnight. Reports that Iranian operatives have indirectly approached the CIA to discuss terms for ending the conflict gave investors a reason to exhale – and the dollar, which had surged roughly 2%...


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Iran crisis upends assumptions

The rapidly escalating crisis in the Middle East is wreaking currency havoc. Sterling has strengthened by close to a cent against the euro since the start of the week, but just how long it can maintain that remains something of an open question. In Westminster, the...


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