After MPs passed a historic motion to hold the government in contempt, the Commons leader, Andrea Leadsom, confirmed that the Brexit legal advice would be released by the government at 11:30am on Wednesday. Reaction to the advice was swift, with many MPs expressing concerns over the attorney general’s full analysis. The key focus was the Irish backstop, the terms of which could trap the UK in ‘protracted and repeated rounds of negotiations’ for years to come.
Labour were quick to say that the Brexit legal advice shows there are central weaknesses in Theresa May’s deal. It now looks as if the bill has absolutely no chance of being passed by Parliament when the meaningful vote is held on 11 December. Quite what will happen if/when May’s deal is defeated is currently unknown, but we have published our guide to possible Brexit outcomes and what that could mean for sterling movements.
We are not scaremongering when we say that if sterling nosedives following the result of the meaningful vote, then property buyers could face having to find thousands of pounds. A €300,000 property at the moment is worth around £267,000. If the pound dropped 10%, you’d suddenly find yourself needing to pay over £290,000. That’s a big ask for anyone’s budget – and it’s why we recommend fixing one exchange rate with a forward contract as early as possible. It’s simple: just give your Personal Trader a call on 020 7898 0541.
Sterling actually started yesterday by making gains against the euro and dollar, as investors appeared to be buoyed by the Commons votes on Tuesday evening. While the results appear to have further diminished May’s chances of getting her deal through Parliament, the markets take it to mean – rightly or wrongly – that there is less chance of a no-deal Brexit. Andrea Leadsom insisted that the Dominic Grieve amendment that was passed does not mean MPs could block a no-deal Brexit. However, the government appears to be hanging on by a thread at the moment, so it is difficult to see how Leadsom can be so sure of anything at present.
Today’s highlights include the construction PMI reading from Germany, as well as the balance of trade figures from America in October. We will also see initial jobless claims up to 1 December 2018 and there will no doubt be much to discuss regarding the political situation in the UK. Hold on to your hats, because we are in for a rocky few days.